Jaden McDaniels Points - Player Prop Bet 12/18/2023

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Jaden McDaniels

NBA · Player Props

Jaden McDaniels

F · Minnesota Timberwolves

Points

Miami Heat vs Minnesota Timberwolves · Dec 18, 2023

Updated Dec 19, 2023 12:53 AM EST

Analysis

Jaden McDaniels Points Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-118/-104).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 8.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 8.5 @ -118.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jaden McDaniels has converted 63.7% of his shot attempts from the field over the last 5 games, 7.0% higher than he's converted over the course of the year.
Jaden McDaniels has converted 45.8% of his attempts from downtown over the last 5 games, 9.9% higher than he's made from beyond the arc over the course of the season.
The Minnesota Timberwolves have been the 8th-highest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 10 games when playing on the road.
The matchup against the Miami Heat is a good one for shots from the field; opposing starting SFs have totaled the 24th-most field goal attempts per game in the NBA this year (12.2).
This year, opposing clubs have nabbed 9.2 offensive boards per game (lowest in the NBA) against the Heat (losing possessions that could otherwise lead to more opportunities for offense).

Favors Under

Jaden McDaniels has committed 3.2 personal fouls per game this year, putting him among the most foul-prone players in the NBA (95th percentile).
Over the last 25 games, the other team has shot 38.5% on three-pointers (2nd-highest in the league) vs. the Miami Heat, labeling this as a positive matchup.
The Minnesota Timberwolves have played at the 7th-least up-tempo pace in the NBA over the last 5 games while on the road.
The Heat have played at the 2nd-slowest tempo in the NBA over the last 15 games, which ought to reduce plays for the Timberwolves.
The Timberwolves rank as the 6th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce extra opportunities for scoring and assists).

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