Jaden McDaniels Points - Player Prop Bet 3/29/2023

NBA · Player Props

Jaden McDaniels

F · Minnesota Timberwolves

Points

Phoenix Suns vs Minnesota Timberwolves · Mar 29, 2023

Updated Mar 30, 2023 2:01 AM EST

Analysis

Jaden McDaniels Points Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-112/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 11.5 @ -103 before it was bet up to 12.5 @ -112.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jaden McDaniels has averaged 16.4 points per game over the last 5 games on the road, 4.2 more than he's averaged in all games this year on the road.
Jaden McDaniels has successfully made 48.6% of his shots from behind the three-point arc over the last 10 games on the road, 11.5% higher than he's made from three over the course of the year while playing on the road.
The Minnesota Timberwolves check in as the 4th-highest scoring offense in the league over the last 10 games while playing on the road.
The Minnesota Timberwolves have played at the 6th-quickest pace-of-play in the league this year.
The Suns have played at the 8th-most up-tempo pace in the NBA over the last 5 games in their home city, which should boost possessions for the Timberwolves.

Favors Under

Jaden McDaniels has been called for 4.4 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 0.9 higher than he's been called for in all games this year.
The matchup vs. Phoenix is a difficult one for field goal attempts; when the Suns have the home court advantage, opposing starting SFs have totaled the 15th-least FG attempts per game in the NBA this year (10.5).
The Minnesota Timberwolves rank as the 3rd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 25 games when playing on the road (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate extra chances for scoring and assists).
The matchup against Phoenix is a hard one for getting to the free throw line; the other team's starting SFs have attempted a lowly 2.6 free throws per game this year when the Suns have the home court advantage (12th-least in the league).
Jaden McDaniels will not enjoy the benefit of the home court advantage in this contest. Playing while traveling generally decreases player production for all stats.