Jaden Hardy Points - Player Prop Bet 1/29/2024

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Jaden Hardy

NBA · Player Props

Jaden Hardy

Dallas Mavericks

Points

Dallas Mavericks vs Orlando Magic · Jan 29, 2024

Updated Jan 30, 2024 3:58 AM UTC

Analysis

Jaden Hardy Points Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (+104/-128).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 8.5 @ -102 before it was bet up to 9.5 @ +104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Offensive rebounds preserve possession and result in extra opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Dallas Mavericks grade out 11thbest in in the NBA when playing at home with 10.5 offensive boards per game over the last 25 games.
This year, their opposition has nabbed 9.6 offensive rebounds per game (3rd-fewest in the NBA) against the Magic (diminishing possessions that could otherwise generate more opportunities for offense).
Jaden Hardy will have the benefit of the home court advantage in this contest. Playing at home usually boosts player production across the board.

Favors Under

Among all players in the NBA, Jaden Hardy comes in at the 12th percentile for scoring prowess with a a poor 35.8% rate this year.
As it relates to scoring, the Dallas Mavericks's subpar 45.1% field goal percentage while at home rates 7th-fewest in the NBA over the last 5 games.
Over the last 5 games, the other team has shot 38.7% on 3-pointers (8th-highest in the league) against the Orlando Magic, making this a positive matchup.
The 10th-most sluggish pace home offense in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Mavericks.
The Magic have played at the least up-tempo pace in the NBA over the last 15 games, which ought to reduce possessions for the Mavericks.

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