Jaden Hardy Points - Player Prop Bet 4/1/2023

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Jaden Hardy

NBA · Player Props

Jaden Hardy

Dallas Mavericks

Points

Miami Heat vs Dallas Mavericks · Apr 1, 2023

Updated Apr 1, 2023 11:46 PM UTC

Analysis

Jaden Hardy Points Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-114/-106).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 8.5 @ +100 before it was bet up to 8.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jaden Hardy has sunk 55.1% of his shots from downtown over the last 15 games on the road, 12.2% more than he's made from three overall this year away from his home court.
Jaden Hardy has tallied 23.8 minutes per game over the last 10 games, 9.6 higher than he's tallied in all games this year.
The Dallas Mavericks have been the 3rd-most aggressive offense in the NBA this year in terms of attempts from downtown.
The Heat have allowed the least offensive rebounds per game (9.0) in the NBA to opposing squads this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce extra chances for scoring and assists).
Jaden Hardy has successfully made 100.0% of his free throw attempts over the last 5 games on the road, 12.3% higher than he's made in all games this season while playing away from home.

Favors Under

This matchup is a positive one for threes; the other team have tallied the 2nd-most three-pointers per game in the league this year (13.2).
The Dallas Mavericks have played at the slowest pace-of-play in the NBA without the home court advantage this year.
The Heat have played at the slowest pace in the league over the last 25 games, which ought to lead to decreased possessions for the Mavericks.
The Dallas Mavericks have been the worst offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
Jaden Hardy will not receive the benefit of the home court advantage in this contest. Playing away from your home court tends to worsens stat production in all stat categories.

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