Jabari Smith Jr. Points - Player Prop Bet 5/4/2025

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Jabari Smith Jr.

NBA · Player Props

Jabari Smith Jr.

F · Houston Rockets

Points

Houston Rockets vs Golden State Warriors · May 4, 2025

Updated May 5, 2025 12:28 AM EST

Analysis

Jabari Smith Jr. Points Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (+110/-145).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 6.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jabari Smith Jr. has successfully made 49.2% of his shots from behind the three-point arc over the last 10 games, 13.5% higher than he's converted from three in all games this year.
Out of all players in the league, Jabari Smith Jr. registers in the 77th percentile for playing time, averaging an enormous 29.7 minutes per game when playing at home this year.
The Houston Rockets rank as the best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
Jabari Smith Jr. has successfully made 100.0% of his foul shot attempts over the last 5 games at home, 12.1% higher than he's converted over the course of the year while playing at home.
Jabari Smith Jr. will possess the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing at home tends to increase player production across the board.

Favors Under

The Houston Rockets check in as the 6th-least efficient 3-point shooting team in the NBA while on their home court this year.
The Rockets have played at the 9th-least up-tempo pace in the NBA over the last 5 games on their home court.
The Rockets will likely suffer a drop-off in opportunities today from squaring off against the 6th-least up-tempo tempo team in the NBA over the last 15 games (the Warriors).

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