Jabari Smith Jr. Points - Player Prop Bet 3/6/2025

NBA · Player Props

Jabari Smith Jr.

F · Houston Rockets

Points

New Orleans Pelicans vs Houston Rockets · Mar 6, 2025

Updated Mar 7, 2025 12:59 AM EST

Analysis

Jabari Smith Jr. Points Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 12.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jabari Smith Jr. has tallied 30.5 minutes per game away from home this year, ranking him in the 81st percentile -- putting him among the most-utilized players in the NBA.
The Houston Rockets have played at the 10th-most up-tempo tempo in the NBA over the last 10 games.
The Houston Rockets are expected to get a boost in possessions today from squaring off against the 5th-fastest tempo offense in the league over the last 20 games (the Pelicans).
The Houston Rockets have been the best offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide added chances for scoring and assists).
The matchup vs. New Orleans may be a positive one for getting to the foul line; the opposition's starting PFs have attempted a massive 3.7 free throws per game over the last 15 games when the New Orleans Pelicans are on their home court (7th-most in the league).

Favors Under

Jabari Smith Jr. has failed to convert 7.4 shot attempts from the field per game over the last 5 games, 1.8 higher than he's missed in all games this year.
Out of all players in the NBA, Jabari Smith Jr. measures in the 83rd percentile for personal fouls, putting up a massive 2.4 fouls per game this year.
In terms of three-pointers, the Rockets's feeble 12.2 made threes per game places 5th-weakest in the league this year.
The matchup vs. New Orleans is a tough one for three-point attempts; when the Pelicans are playing at home, the other team's starting PFs have tallied the 5th-least three attempts per game in the NBA this year (3.4).
Jabari Smith Jr. will not have the benefit of the home court advantage in this contest. Playing on the road generally decreases player performance across the board.