Jabari Smith Jr. Points - Player Prop Bet 12/26/2024

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Jabari Smith Jr.

NBA · Player Props

Jabari Smith Jr.

F · Houston Rockets

Points

New Orleans Pelicans vs Houston Rockets · Dec 26, 2024

Updated Dec 27, 2024 1:05 AM EST

Analysis

Jabari Smith Jr. Points Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 11.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 14.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jabari Smith Jr. has played 36.4 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 5.4 higher than he's played in all games this season.
The 7th-most up-tempo pace team in the NBA over the last 20 games has been the Rockets.
The Houston Rockets will likely see an increase in possessions in this game from sharing the court with the 7th-most up-tempo pace team in the NBA over the last 15 games (the New Orleans Pelicans).
The Houston Rockets check in as the best offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to added chances for scoring and assists).
Over the last 15 games when they are the visiting squad, the other team's starting PFs have attempted 3.7 free throws per game (7th-most in the NBA) vs. the Pelicans, finding it easy to get to the charity stripe.

Favors Under

Out of all players in the NBA, Jabari Smith Jr. measures in the 78th percentile for personal fouls, tallying a massive 2.3 fouls per game this year.
The Houston Rockets have been the 10th-lowest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 5 games without the home court advantage.
This year when they are the visiting squad, the opposition's starting PFs have totaled 3.4 three attempts per game (5th-fewest in the NBA) vs. the Pelicans, identifying this as a hard matchup.
Jabari Smith Jr. will likely suffer a drop-off in performance for all stats due to playing on the visting team in this game.

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