Jabari Smith Jr. Points - Player Prop Bet 12/5/2024

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Jabari Smith Jr.

NBA · Player Props

Jabari Smith Jr.

F · Houston Rockets

Points

Golden State Warriors vs Houston Rockets · Dec 5, 2024

Updated Dec 6, 2024 3:59 AM EST

Analysis

Jabari Smith Jr. Points Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 12.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jabari Smith Jr. has sunk 48.6% of his 3-pointers over the last 10 games, 15.9% more than he's made from downtown in all games this season.
Jabari Smith Jr. has averaged 35.2 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 5.8 more than he's averaged over the course of the year.
The matchup vs. Golden State is a favorable one for shot attempts from the field; when the Golden State Warriors have the home court advantage, the opposing team's starting PFs have tallied the 2nd-most shot attempts per game in the NBA this year (15.8).
The Rockets have played at the 4th-quickest pace in the league over the last 10 games.
The Rockets will likely see a spike in opportunities in this game from facing the 3rd-quickest pace home offense in the league over the last 5 games (the Warriors).

Favors Under

Jabari Smith Jr. has committed 3.2 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 0.8 higher than he's committed over the course of the year.
The Rockets rank as the 5th-least efficient 3-point shooting team in the NBA this year.
This year when they are away from home, opposing starting PFs have attempted 3.1 foul shots per game (9th-lowest in the NBA) against the Golden State Warriors, finding it difficult to get to the free-throw line.
Jabari Smith Jr. will not have the benefit of the home court advantage in this game. Playing while traveling usually worsens stat production in all stat categories.

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