Jabari Smith Jr. Points - Player Prop Bet 1/15/2024

NBA · Player Props

Jabari Smith Jr.

F · Houston Rockets

Points

Philadelphia 76ers vs Houston Rockets · Jan 15, 2024

Updated Jan 15, 2024 6:25 PM EST

Analysis

Jabari Smith Jr. Points Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 13.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 13.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jabari Smith Jr. has tallied 16.4 points per game over the last 5 games when playing on the road, 3.6 more than he's tallied overall this season on the road.
Jabari Smith Jr. has played 37.4 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 6.0 higher than he's played overall this year.
This year when they are on the road, opposing starting PFs have averaged 45.6% on 3-pointers (29th-best in the league) vs. the 76ers, making this a strong matchup.
The Houston Rockets are expected to get a boost in opportunities in this game from being pitted against the 6th-fastest pace home offense in the NBA over the last 20 games (the Philadelphia 76ers).
The Houston Rockets have been the 7th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 10 games away from their home court (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to added chances for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Among all players in the league, Jabari Smith Jr. slots into the 94th percentile for personal fouls, compiling a colossal 3.0 fouls per game this year.
With respect to scoring, the Rockets's unimpressive 112.7 points per game ranks 9th-worst in the NBA this year.
The 6th-most sluggish pace road offense in the league this year has been the Rockets.
The 76ers have allowed the most offensive rebounds per game (13.6) in the league to opposing squads over the last 10 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore produce added chances for scoring and assists).
The matchup against Philadelphia may be a hard one for drawing fouls; the opposing team's starting PFs have attempted a measly 2.8 foul shots per game over the last 10 games when the 76ers are at home (9th-least in the NBA).