Jabari Smith Jr. Points - Player Prop Bet 1/13/2024

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Jabari Smith Jr.

NBA · Player Props

Jabari Smith Jr.

F · Houston Rockets

Points

Boston Celtics vs Houston Rockets · Jan 13, 2024

Updated Jan 14, 2024 3:28 AM EST

Analysis

Jabari Smith Jr. Points Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (+112/-152).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ -132 before it was bet down to 13.5 @ -152.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jabari Smith Jr. has successfully made 2.4 threes per game over the last 5 games, 0.7 more than he's made from beyond the arc overall this season.
Jabari Smith Jr. has tallied 38.4 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 6.8 more than he's tallied in all games this year.
The Houston Rockets will likely see a spike in possessions in this game from being pitted against the 10th-quickest pace-of-play offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (the Boston Celtics).
Offensive rebounds maintain possession and lead to bonus opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Rockets grade out 7thbest in in the league while playing away from home with 11.8 offensive rebounds per game over the last 5 games.
Jabari Smith Jr. has sunk 2.9 free throws per game over the last 15 games, 1.0 more than he's sunk in all games this year.

Favors Under

Out of all players in the NBA, Jabari Smith Jr. slots into the 95th percentile for personal fouls, registering an enormous 3.0 fouls per game this year.
The Rockets check in as the 7th-lowest scoring offense in the league over the last 5 games.
The matchup vs. the Boston Celtics is a hard one; they have given up the 14th-least points per game in the NBA to the opposition's starting PFs this year (14.5).
The Rockets have played at the 4th-most sluggish pace-of-play in the NBA as the away team this year.
The Boston Celtics have allowed the 4th-most offensive rebounds per game (11.8) in the NBA to their opposition over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide added chances for scoring and assists).

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