Jabari Smith Jr. Points - Player Prop Bet 11/17/2023

NBA · Player Props

Jabari Smith Jr.

F · Houston Rockets

Points

LA Clippers vs Houston Rockets · Nov 17, 2023

Updated Nov 18, 2023 3:09 AM EST

Analysis

Jabari Smith Jr. Points Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-108/-112).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ -106 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ -108.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Among all players in the league, Jabari Smith Jr. comes in at the 81st percentile for shots from behind the three-point arc, compiling 4.9 per game this year.
In terms of scoring, the Houston Rockets's remarkable 48.3% field goal rate while on the road comes in as the 9th-strongest in the NBA over the last 5 games.
The LA Clippers have played at the 7th-fastest tempo in the league at home this year, which should increase plays for the Houston Rockets.
When playing away from home, the LA Clippers have given up the 10th-least offensive rebounds per game (9.8) in the NBA to the other team this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce further opportunities for scoring and assists).
This year when they are the visiting squad, the opposition's starting PFs have attempted 5.2 free throws per game (30th-most in the league) vs. the Clippers, finding it easy to draw fouls.

Favors Under

Among all players in the league, Jabari Smith Jr. slots into the 97th percentile for personal fouls, totaling a whopping 3.3 fouls per game without the home court advantage this year.
This year when they are the visiting team, opposing starting PFs have averaged 23.5% on 3-pointers (15th-worst in the NBA) vs. the Clippers, marking this as a tough matchup.
The 2nd-most sluggish tempo road offense in the NBA this year has been the Rockets.
Offensive rebounds save possession and bring about more opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Houston Rockets grade out 5thworst in in the league with just 9.4 offensive boards per game this year.
Jabari Smith Jr. has converted a mere 68.8% of his free throws this year, a significant dropoff from his 79.8 rate last year.