Jabari Smith Jr. Points - Player Prop Bet 2/28/2023

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Jabari Smith Jr.

NBA · Player Props

Jabari Smith Jr.

F · Houston Rockets

Points

Houston Rockets vs Denver Nuggets · Feb 28, 2023

Updated Mar 1, 2023 12:33 AM EST

Analysis

Jabari Smith Jr. Points Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 12.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jabari Smith Jr. has played 29.7 minutes per game since the start of last season, ranking among the most used players in the NBA: 81st percentile.
The Houston Rockets rank as the highest scoring offense in the league over the last 5 games with the home court advantage.
The Houston Rockets have played at the quickest pace-of-play in the league on their home court this year.
The Nuggets have played at the 6th-speediest pace-of-play in the league over the last 10 games, which should increase plays for the Rockets.
The Nuggets have given up the 2nd-least offensive rebounds per game (8.1) in the league to opposing squads over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate extra chances for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Jabari Smith Jr. has accumulated 3.0 personal fouls per game since the start of last season, making him one of the most highest-fouling players in the league (95th percentile).
The matchup against the Nuggets is a positive one; they have allowed the 3rd-most points per game in the league to their opposition over the last 10 games (121.5).
The Houston Rockets have been the 3rd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league at home this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists).
This matchup may be a positive one for drawing fouls; opposing teams have attempted an enormous 28.1 free throws per game over the last 10 games (3rd-most in the league).

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