Herbert Jones Points - Player Prop Bet 2/14/2024

NBA · Player Props

Herbert Jones

F · New Orleans Pelicans

Points

New Orleans Pelicans vs Washington Wizards · Feb 14, 2024

Updated Feb 15, 2024 1:13 AM EST

Analysis

Herbert Jones Points Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 12.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 11.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Herbert Jones has converted 58.1% of his 3-point shots over the last 15 games, 18.2% more than he's made from downtown over the course of the season.
The matchup vs. Washington is a favorable one for shots from the field; when the Washington Wizards are the visiting team, opposing starting SGs have tallied the 26th-most FG attempts per game in the league this year (13.6).
The Pelicans will likely get a boost in possessions today from competing against the quickest tempo team in the league this year (the Washington Wizards).
Offensive rebounds preserve possession and bring about further chances for scoring and assists, and the New Orleans Pelicans grade out 12thbest in in the NBA while at home with 11.9 offensive boards per game over the last 15 games.
Herbert Jones has made a whopping 87.6% of his free throw attempts this year, quite a bit more than his 73.1 rate last year.

Favors Under

Out of all players in the NBA, Herbert Jones ranks in the 91st percentile for personal fouls, posting a monstrous 2.8 fouls per game while at home this year.
The Pelicans check in as the 4th-lowest scoring offense in the league over the last 10 games.
The New Orleans Pelicans have played at the 6th-most lethargic tempo in the league over the last 25 games.
The Wizards have allowed the most offensive boards per game (12.8) in the NBA to the other team this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create added opportunities for scoring and assists).
Over the last 15 games when they are playing at home, the opposing team's starting SGs have attempted 2.3 free throws per game (14th-lowest in the league) vs. the Washington Wizards, facing an uphill battle to get to the foul line.