Herbert Jones Points - Player Prop Bet 1/15/2024

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NBA · Player Props

Herbert Jones

F · New Orleans Pelicans

Points

Dallas Mavericks vs New Orleans Pelicans · Jan 15, 2024

Updated Jan 15, 2024 7:53 PM EST

Analysis

Herbert Jones Points Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 9.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Herbert Jones has made 60.8% of his 3-point attempts over the last 5 games on the road, 25.4% more than he's converted from 3-point range in all games this season on the road.
This year when they are the visiting squad, the other team's starting SGs have tallied 2.8 three-pointers per game (28th-highest in the NBA) vs. the Dallas Mavericks, marking this as a positive matchup.
The Pelicans will likely see a spike in opportunities in this contest from competing against the 7th-quickest tempo home offense in the league over the last 20 games (the Dallas Mavericks).
Offensive rebounds retain possession and produce added opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Pelicans rank 7thbest in in the league away from their home court with 11.3 offensive boards per game over the last 20 games.

Favors Under

Herbert Jones has been called for 2.8 personal fouls per game while playing away from home this year, ranking him in the 91st percentile -- among the league's most-whistled.
In terms of 3-point attempts, the 3rd-least aggressive offense in the league this year has been the New Orleans Pelicans.
The slowest pace team in the NBA over the last 15 games has been the New Orleans Pelicans.
Over the last 5 games when they are the visiting team, opposing teams have come down with 14.6 offensive boards per game (highest in the league) against the Dallas Mavericks (maintaining possessions that can produce more opportunities for offense).
Over the last 10 games, the other team's starting SGs have attempted 1.8 free throws per game (10th-fewest in the NBA) vs. the Dallas Mavericks, struggling to get to the charity stripe.