Herbert Jones Points - Player Prop Bet 12/15/2023

NBA · Player Props

Herbert Jones

F · New Orleans Pelicans

Points

Charlotte Hornets vs New Orleans Pelicans · Dec 15, 2023

Updated Dec 15, 2023 11:09 PM EST

Analysis

Herbert Jones Points Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-150/+115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 11.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 11.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Out of all players in the NBA, Herbert Jones lands in the 75th percentile for playing time, compiling a monstrous 29.4 minutes per game on his home court this year.
The New Orleans Pelicans have played at the 2nd-speediest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 25 games.
The New Orleans Pelicans will likely see a spike in possessions in this contest from squaring off against the 10th-quickest pace home offense in the NBA over the last 12 games (the Charlotte Hornets).
Offensive rebounds continue possession and result in bonus opportunities for scoring and assists, and the New Orleans Pelicans grade out 7thbest in in the league away from their home court with 12.0 offensive rebounds per game this year.
Compared to last year's 73.1% clip, Herbert Jones's foul-shot ability has surged this year to 88.0%.

Favors Under

Herbert Jones has failed to convert 5.8 shot attempts from the field per game over the last 5 games at home, 1.7 higher than he's missed over the course of the year with the home court advantage.
Herbert Jones has averaged 3.5 personal fouls per game while at home this year, ranking in the 96th percentile -- among the NBA's highest-fouling.
With respect to 3-point attempts, the least aggressive offense in the league while on their home court this year has been the Pelicans.
This year when they are the visiting squad, the opposing team's starting SFs have totaled 3.7 3-point attempts per game (14th-fewest in the league) vs. the Hornets, identifying this as a tough matchup.
This year, opposing teams have captured 11.6 offensive rebounds per game (9th-highest in the league) against the Hornets (lengthening possessions that can bring about further opportunities for offense).