Herbert Jones Points - Player Prop Bet 11/17/2023

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Herbert Jones

NBA · Player Props

Herbert Jones

F · New Orleans Pelicans

Points

New Orleans Pelicans vs Denver Nuggets · Nov 17, 2023

Updated Nov 18, 2023 1:38 AM EST

Analysis

Herbert Jones Points Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-135/+100).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Herbert Jones has compiled a whopping 13.4 points per game this year, significantly higher than his 10.3 points per game last year.
The matchup against Denver is a good one for shots from the field; when the Denver Nuggets are away from home, opposing starting SGs have totaled the 23rd-most FG attempts per game in the NBA this year (14.8).
The New Orleans Pelicans have played at the 4th-fastest tempo in the league over the last 5 games.
This year when they are at home, their opposition has snagged 10.0 offensive boards per game (10th-lowest in the NBA) against the Nuggets (lessening possessions that could otherwise bring about more opportunities for offense).
Herbert Jones has successfully made a terrific 3.2 foul shots per game this year, a sizeable increase from his 1.9 mark last year.

Favors Under

Herbert Jones has averaged 3.8 personal fouls per game while on his home court this year, ranking him in the 98th percentile -- among the NBA's most-whistled.
The Denver Nuggets have played at the 4th-least up-tempo pace-of-play in the NBA without the home court advantage this year, which should lead to fewer opportunities for the Pelicans.
Offensive rebounds save possession and create added opportunities for scoring and assists, but the New Orleans Pelicans rank 10thworst in in the league as the road team with only 9.8 offensive rebounds per game this year.

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