Harrison Barnes Points - Player Prop Bet 1/14/2024

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Harrison Barnes

NBA · Player Props

Harrison Barnes

F · Sacramento Kings

Points

Milwaukee Bucks vs Sacramento Kings · Jan 14, 2024

Updated Jan 15, 2024 12:09 AM EST

Analysis

Harrison Barnes Points Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 8.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 8.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Harrison Barnes has made 1.7 shots from behind the three-point arc per game this year, ranking him in the 76th percentile among all players in the league.
Over the last 5 games, the opposing team's starting SFs have compiled 19.8 points per game (28th-highest in the NBA) against the Bucks, making this a good matchup for offensive effectiveness.
The Bucks have played at the fastest tempo in the NBA over the last 20 games with the home court advantage, which ought to lead to increased opportunities for the Sacramento Kings.
Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and result in bonus opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Sacramento Kings rank 2ndbest in in the league with 13.2 offensive boards per game over the last 5 games.
Over the last 5 games when they are away from home, the opposing team's starting SFs have attempted 5.6 free throws per game (28th-highest in the league) against the Milwaukee Bucks, making it fairly effortless to get to the charity stripe.

Favors Under

In contrast to last season's 14.7 clip, Harrison Barnes's points per game have regressed this season to 10.8.
The Sacramento Kings check in as the 8th-least efficient 3-point shooting team in the league while on the road this year.
Over the last 20 games when they are the visiting team, their opposition has come down with 12.1 offensive rebounds per game (4th-most in the league) against the Bucks (continuing possessions that can lead to additional chances for offense).
Harrison Barnes should suffer a drop-off in productivity for all stats as a result of playing away from home in this matchup.

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