Grant Williams Rebounds - Player Prop Bet 12/23/2023

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Grant Williams

NBA · Player Props

Grant Williams

F · Dallas Mavericks

Rebounds

Dallas Mavericks vs San Antonio Spurs · Dec 23, 2023

Updated Dec 24, 2023 1:31 AM EST

Analysis

Grant Williams Rebounds Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-145/+115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Grant Williams has compiled 1.8 offensive rebounds per game over the last 5 games while playing at home, 0.7 more than he's compiled overall this year at home.
Grant Williams has played 33.0 minutes per game over the last 5 games with the home court advantage, 5.0 more than he's played over the course of the year at home.
The Mavericks will likely see a rise in possessions in this game from sharing the court with the 3rd-most up-tempo pace-of-play offense in the league this year (the Spurs).
Offensive rebounds retain possession and bring about added chances for scoring and assists, and the Mavericks grade out 10thbest in in the league with 11.4 offensive rebounds per game over the last 5 games.
Away from their home court, the Spurs have given up the 2nd-least offensive boards per game (8.9) in the NBA to opposing squads this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate extra chances for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Grant Williams has committed 2.8 personal fouls per game this year, placing him among the most-whistled players in the NBA (90th percentile).
The 10th-most lethargic pace-of-play home team in the NBA over the last 9 games has been the Mavericks.

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