Grant Williams Points - Player Prop Bet 3/3/2024

NBA · Player Props

Grant Williams

F · Charlotte Hornets

Points

Toronto Raptors vs Charlotte Hornets · Mar 3, 2024

Updated Mar 3, 2024 11:02 PM EST

Analysis

Grant Williams Points Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-125/-109).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ -103 before it was bet down to 13.5 @ -109.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Grant Williams has totaled 12.9 points per game over the last 10 games, 3.9 more than he's totaled overall this year.
Grant Williams has successfully made 52.1% of his field goal attempts over the last 5 games, 10.7% higher than he's sunk in all games this year.
The rate of shots from behind the three-point arc sunk against Jakob Poeltl has been remarkably high (41.8%) when he is on his home court and matched up against other starting Cs this year (100th percentile).
The Charlotte Hornets will likely see a rise in plays in this game from facing the fastest pace home team in the league over the last 5 games (the Toronto Raptors).
Grant Williams has attempted 2.6 foul shots per game over the last 10 games, 1.2 higher than he's attempted overall this season.

Favors Under

Out of all players in the league, Grant Williams measures in the 93rd percentile for personal fouls, averaging a massive 2.9 fouls per game away from his home court this year.
The Charlotte Hornets have played at the 2nd-most lethargic pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games.
The Charlotte Hornets rank as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 20 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate further chances for scoring and assists).
The Toronto Raptors have given up the 2nd-most offensive rebounds per game (12.3) in the NBA to the other team over the last 20 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide new opportunities for scoring and assists).
The number of fouls drawn by opposing starting Cs against Jakob Poeltl has been quite low this year (2.4 free throw attempts per game when they have the home court advantage: 21st percentile).