Grant Williams Points - Player Prop Bet 2/27/2024

NBA · Player Props

Grant Williams

F · Charlotte Hornets

Points

Milwaukee Bucks vs Charlotte Hornets · Feb 27, 2024

Updated Feb 28, 2024 1:35 AM EST

Analysis

Grant Williams Points Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-124/+102).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 9.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 9.5 @ -124.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Grant Williams has attempted 6.0 3-pointers per game over the last 5 games, 1.4 more than he's attempted in all games this season.
This matchup is a challenging one for shots from the field; their opposition has posted the 4th-lowest FG% in the league over the last 10 games when the Bucks are at home (45.6%).
The Hornets are expected to see a rise in possessions in this contest from being pitted against the 4th-quickest tempo home team in the NBA this year (the Milwaukee Bucks).
Offensive rebounds preserve possession and produce more chances for scoring and assists, and the Hornets grade out 5thbest in in the NBA while playing on the road with 11.0 offensive rebounds per game this year.
Grant Williams has successfully made 90.8% of his foul shot attempts over the last 15 games on the road, 18.3% more than he's converted over the course of the season when playing away from home.

Favors Under

Out of all players in the league, Grant Williams ranks in the 93rd percentile for personal fouls, posting a massive 2.8 fouls per game this year.
In terms of offense, the Hornets's unimpressive 105.1 points per game while on the road comes in as the worst in the NBA over the last 25 games.
Over the last 25 games when they are on the road, the other team has snagged 11.4 offensive boards per game (6th-highest in the league) vs. the Milwaukee Bucks (continuing possessions that can lead to bonus opportunities for offense).
This matchup may be a favorable one for getting to the free-throw line; when the Milwaukee Bucks have the home court advantage, the other team has attempted a monstrous 23.2 foul shots per game over the last 5 games (5th-most in the NBA).
Grant Williams will not enjoy the benefit of the home court advantage in this contest. Playing away from your home stadium usually lowers stat production for all stats.