Grant Williams Points - Player Prop Bet 12/16/2023

NBA · Player Props

Grant Williams

F · Dallas Mavericks

Points

Portland Trail Blazers vs Dallas Mavericks · Dec 16, 2023

Updated Dec 17, 2023 2:05 AM EST

Analysis

Grant Williams Points Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-102/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ -102 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ -102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Out of all players in the NBA, Grant Williams comes in at the 88th percentile for 3-point shots scored, totaling 2.3 per game this year.
The Mavericks check in as the 5th-highest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 5 games.
The Dallas Mavericks have played at the 5th-speediest pace-of-play in the league without the home court advantage this year.
This year when they are away from home, the other team has captured 10.1 offensive rebounds per game (6th-lowest in the NBA) vs. the Portland Trail Blazers (losing possessions that could otherwise generate extra opportunities for offense).
The matchup against Portland may be a positive one for getting to the free-throw line; the opposition's starting PFs have attempted a colossal 5.0 free throws per game over the last 5 games when the Trail Blazers have the home court advantage (25th-most in the NBA).

Favors Under

Grant Williams has committed 0.1 technical fouls per game away from his home court this year, putting him in the 85th percentile -- among the NBA's most foul-prone when it comes to technicals.
The matchup vs. the Portland Trail Blazers is a difficult one for shot attempts from downtown; the other team's starting PFs have totaled the 9th-least three attempts per game in the NBA this year (3.9).
The Portland Trail Blazers have played at the 3rd-most sluggish pace-of-play in the NBA in their home stadium this year, which should decrease opportunities for the Mavericks.
The Dallas Mavericks rank as the 6th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce extra chances for scoring and assists).
Grant Williams has made just 58.3% of his foul shot attempts this season, quite a bit less than his 75.6 rate last season.