Grant Williams Points - Player Prop Bet 11/18/2023

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Grant Williams

NBA · Player Props

Grant Williams

F · Dallas Mavericks

Points

Milwaukee Bucks vs Dallas Mavericks · Nov 18, 2023

Updated Nov 19, 2023 12:28 AM EST

Analysis

Grant Williams Points Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 8.5 @ -123 before it was bet up to 9.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

In contrast to last year's 1.4 mark, Grant Williams's threes sunk have risen this year to 2.7 per game.
The Mavericks have been the highest scoring offense in the league when playing away from home this year.
This matchup is a tough one for 3-point shots; when the Bucks are playing at home, opposing teams have compiled the 7th-lowest three rate in the NBA this year (34.4%).
The Dallas Mavericks have played at the 2nd-most up-tempo pace in the league while playing on the road this year.
The Dallas Mavericks are expected to get a boost in opportunities in this contest from facing the 3rd-speediest pace-of-play away offense in the league over the last 5 games (the Milwaukee Bucks).

Favors Under

Compared to last season's 0.1 rate, Grant Williams's technical fouls have increased this season to 0.2 per game.
The matchup against Milwaukee is a difficult one for shots from the field; when the Bucks are away from home, the other team's starting PFs have put up the 15th-lowest Field Goal% in the league this year (28.8%).
Offensive rebounds continue possession and bring about further opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Dallas Mavericks grade out 9thworst in in the league playing at home with only 9.8 offensive rebounds per game this year.
This year when they are the visiting squad, opposing squads have grabbed 12.8 offensive rebounds per game (3rd-highest in the NBA) against the Milwaukee Bucks (saving possessions that can produce extra chances for offense).
Grant Williams has converted a measly 60.7% of his foul shot attempts this year, quite a bit less than his 75.6 mark last year.

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