Grant Williams Points - Player Prop Bet 11/3/2023

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Grant Williams

NBA · Player Props

Grant Williams

F · Dallas Mavericks

Points

Denver Nuggets vs Dallas Mavericks · Nov 3, 2023

Updated Nov 4, 2023 1:53 AM EST

Analysis

Grant Williams Points Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-114/-106).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 8.5 @ -108 before it was bet down to 8.5 @ -106.

Key Factors

Favors Over

As it relates to shot attempts from downtown, the 3rd-most aggressive team in the NBA on the road since the start of last season has been the Dallas Mavericks.
Since the start of last season when they have the home court advantage, the other team has secured 9.9 offensive boards per game (8th-fewest in the NBA) vs. the Nuggets (diminishing possessions that could otherwise produce added opportunities for offense).

Favors Under

Out of all players in the NBA, Grant Williams slots into the 76th percentile for personal fouls, putting up a colossal 2.3 fouls per game without the home court advantage since the start of last season.
The matchup vs. Denver is a challenging one for 3-pointers; when the Denver Nuggets are at home, the opposition's starting PFs have totaled the 13th-least 3-pointers per game in the NBA since the start of last season (1.3).
The {OPP_TEAM} will likely suffer a reduction in possessions today from sharing the court with the 7th-most lethargic pace team in the league this year (the Denver Nuggets).
Offensive rebounds maintain possession and create more opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Dallas Mavericks rank 1stworst in in the NBA when playing on the road with a mere 7.7 offensive boards per game since the start of last season.
Over the last 5 games when they are the visiting squad, the opposition's starting PFs have attempted 2.4 foul shots per game (14th-fewest in the NBA) vs. the Denver Nuggets, facing an uphill battle to draw fouls.

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