Gary Payton II Points - Player Prop Bet 3/25/2025

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Gary Payton II

NBA · Player Props

Gary Payton II

G · Golden State Warriors

Points

Miami Heat vs Golden State Warriors · Mar 25, 2025

Updated Mar 25, 2025 11:34 PM EST

Analysis

Gary Payton II Points Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-106/-129).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ -121 before it was bet up to 8.5 @ -106.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Gary Payton II has sunk 5.2 field goals per game over the last 10 games, 2.4 more than he's made over the course of the year.
Gary Payton II has converted 56.3% of his three-point shots over the last 5 games, 29.9% higher than he's converted over the course of the season.
This year, opposing starting SGs have totaled 6.3 3-point attempts per game (highest in the NBA) against the Heat, resulting in a good matchup.
The Golden State Warriors have played at the 10th-fastest pace in the league over the last 5 games when playing away from home.
Offensive rebounds preserve possession and create more opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Warriors grade out 3rd-best in the league as the visting team with 13.1 offensive boards per game this year.

Favors Under

The Warriors rank as the 5th-least efficient shooting team in the league this year.
The Heat have played at the least up-tempo tempo in the NBA on their home court this year, which should reduce opportunities for the Warriors.
Gary Payton II will not possess the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing away from your home city generally reduces player production in all facets of the game.

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