Gary Payton II Points - Player Prop Bet 11/28/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Gary Payton II

G · Golden State Warriors

Points

Sacramento Kings vs Golden State Warriors · Nov 28, 2023

Updated Nov 29, 2023 3:02 AM EST

Analysis

Gary Payton II Points Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+104/-135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ +104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Relative to last year's 2.3 clip, Gary Payton II's shots from the field made have spiked this year to 3.5 per game.
The Kings have played at the 8th-most up-tempo pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games in their home city, which ought to raise possessions for the Warriors.
The Golden State Warriors check in as the 3rd-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA while at home this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to new opportunities for scoring and assists).
While on their home court, the Sacramento Kings have given up the 3rd-least offensive boards per game (9.1) in the NBA to their opposition this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists).
Gary Payton II has sunk a terrific 100.0% of his free throw attempts this year, quite a bit higher than his 83.3 mark last year.

Favors Under

In comparison to last season's 2.0 mark, Gary Payton II's personal fouls per game have risen this season to 2.3.
The Warriors rank as the 5th-least efficient shooting team in the league with the home court advantage this year.
This year when they are on their home court, opposing squads have averaged 43.8 buckets per game (6th-highest in the NBA) vs. the Kings, resulting in a positive matchup.
This matchup may be a positive one for getting to the free-throw line; the other team has attempted a monstrous 27.2 free throws per game over the last 5 games (4th-most in the NBA).
Gary Payton II will likely see a decline in output across the board on account of playing away from hom in this matchup.