Gabe Vincent Points - Player Prop Bet 6/4/2023

NBA · Player Props

Gabe Vincent

G · Miami Heat

Points

Denver Nuggets vs Miami Heat · Jun 4, 2023

Updated Jun 4, 2023 10:26 PM EST

Analysis

Gabe Vincent Points Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 12.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 13.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Gabe Vincent has successfully made 3.4 three-point shots per game over the last 5 games, 1.5 more than he's made from 3-point range over the course of the year.
Gabe Vincent has averaged 32.9 minutes per game over the last 10 games without the home court advantage, 6.4 more than he's averaged over the course of the year on the road.
The Miami Heat have been the 8th-most aggressive offense in the NBA while on the road this year in terms of 3-point attempts.
The matchup vs. Denver is a good one for threes; when the Nuggets are playing at home, the opposition's starting PGs have put up the 28th-highest 3-point percentage in the NBA this year (38.3%).
The Nuggets have given up the least offensive rebounds per game (8.3) in the league to their opposition over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce additional chances for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Gabe Vincent has tallied 3.2 personal fouls per game over the last 15 games, 0.8 more than he's tallied in all games this year.
The Miami Heat have played at the least up-tempo pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games.
The Nuggets have played at the 4th-least up-tempo pace in the NBA over the last 20 games at home, which should lead to decreased opportunities for the Heat.
The Miami Heat rank as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 15 games without the home court advantage (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce extra chances for scoring and assists).
The matchup vs. the Nuggets may be a challenging one for drawing fouls; the other team's starting PGs have attempted just 1.9 free throws per game over the last 25 games (11th-least in the NBA).