Gabe Vincent Points - Player Prop Bet 5/19/2023

NBA · Player Props

Gabe Vincent

G · Miami Heat

Points

Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat · May 19, 2023

Updated May 20, 2023 12:21 AM EST

Analysis

Gabe Vincent Points Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-123/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -104 before it was bet down to 9.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Gabe Vincent has attempted 8.8 3-pointers per game over the last 5 games without the home court advantage, 3.1 higher than he's attempted overall this year on the road.
Gabe Vincent has been on the court for 34.4 minutes per game over the last 5 games without the home court advantage, 8.5 more than he's been on the court for in all games this season on the road.
The Miami Heat check in as the 2nd-most aggressive offense in the NBA over the last 5 games without the home court advantage as it relates to attempts from downtown.
The matchup vs. Boston is a good one for shots from the field; when the Celtics are on their home court, the opposing team's starting PGs have averaged the 28th-most field goal attempts per game in the league this year (15.6).
With the home court advantage, the Celtics have given up the 3rd-least offensive rebounds per game (7.4) in the NBA to opposing teams over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate extra opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Gabe Vincent has averaged 3.6 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 1.2 more than he's averaged in all games this season.
The Miami Heat have played at the most lethargic pace-of-play in the league over the last 25 games.
The Celtics have played at the 2nd-most sluggish pace in the NBA over the last 10 games, which ought to reduce possessions for the Heat.
The Miami Heat check in as the 3rd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce further chances for scoring and assists).
Gabe Vincent will not receive the benefit of the home court advantage in this game. Playing away from your home city generally lowers stat production for all stats.