Gabe Vincent Points - Player Prop Bet 5/17/2023

NBA · Player Props

Gabe Vincent

G · Miami Heat

Points

Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat · May 17, 2023

Updated May 17, 2023 7:51 PM EST

Analysis

Gabe Vincent Points Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 9.5 @ -106 before it was bet up to 9.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Gabe Vincent has attempted 9.6 shots from downtown per game over the last 5 games away from home, 3.8 more than he's attempted in all games this season on the road.
Gabe Vincent has been on the court for 31.6 minutes per game over the last 5 games away from home, 5.9 more than he's been on the court for over the course of the year on the road.
The Miami Heat rank as the 2nd-most aggressive offense in the NBA over the last 5 games without the home court advantage when it comes to attempts from downtown.
The matchup vs. Boston is a favorable one for field goal attempts; when the Celtics are on their home court, the opposing team's starting PGs have totaled the 28th-most shot attempts per game in the NBA this year (15.8).
With the home court advantage, the Celtics have given up the 2nd-least offensive rebounds per game (7.2) in the league to their opposition over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate further chances for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Gabe Vincent has tallied 3.6 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 1.2 higher than he's tallied in all games this year.
The Miami Heat have played at the least up-tempo pace-of-play in the league over the last 15 games while playing on the road.
The Celtics have played at the 3rd-least up-tempo pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games, which should decrease possessions for the Heat.
The Miami Heat check in as the 4th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 10 games when playing away from home (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists).
Gabe Vincent will not have the benefit of the home court advantage in this game. Playing away from your home city usually reduces player production for all stats.