Gabe Vincent Points - Player Prop Bet 5/8/2023

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Gabe Vincent

NBA · Player Props

Gabe Vincent

G · Miami Heat

Points

Miami Heat vs New York Knicks · May 8, 2023

Updated May 8, 2023 10:51 PM EST

Analysis

Gabe Vincent Points Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-125/-103).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ -111 before it was bet down to 12.5 @ -103.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Gabe Vincent has attempted 9.2 shots from downtown per game over the last 5 games, 3.8 more than he's attempted in all games this season.
Gabe Vincent has tallied 34.4 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 8.5 more than he's tallied in all games this season.
The Miami Heat check in as the 6th-most aggressive offense in the NBA over the last 5 games as it relates to attempts from downtown.
The matchup against New York is a strong one for shot attempts from the field; when the Knicks are the visiting team, the other team's starting PGs have tallied the 26th-most field goal attempts per game in the league this year (15.5).
The Knicks have allowed the least offensive rebounds per game (8.4) in the NBA to opposing clubs over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Gabe Vincent has averaged 3.6 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 1.3 higher than he's averaged over the course of the year.
The Miami Heat have played at the 2nd-least up-tempo pace in the league this year.
The Knicks have played at the 2nd-slowest pace-of-play in the league over the last 10 games, which should reduce opportunities for the Heat.
The Miami Heat rank as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 10 games when playing at home (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists).

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