Gabe Vincent Points - Player Prop Bet 5/2/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Gabe Vincent

G · Miami Heat

Points

New York Knicks vs Miami Heat · May 2, 2023

Updated May 2, 2023 11:16 PM EST

Analysis

Gabe Vincent Points Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-140/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 13.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 14.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Gabe Vincent has attempted 13.8 field goals per game over the last 5 games, 5.3 higher than he's attempted over the course of the season.
Gabe Vincent has attempted 8.6 threes per game over the last 5 games when playing away from home, 2.9 more than he's attempted over the course of the year on the road.
Gabe Vincent has played 30.0 minutes per game over the last 5 games without the home court advantage, 4.6 higher than he's played overall this season on the road.
The Miami Heat check in as the 8th-most aggressive offense in the NBA away from their home court this year as it relates to three-point attempts.
The matchup vs. the Knicks is a good one for three-pointers; the opposing team's starting PGs have totaled the 29th-most shots from downtown per game in the NBA this year (2.4).

Favors Under

Gabe Vincent has been called for 2.3 personal fouls per game this year, placing him among the most-whistled players in the NBA (77th percentile).
The Knicks have played at the 3rd-slowest pace in the league over the last 5 games, which ought to lead to fewer opportunities for the Heat.
The Miami Heat check in as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists).
The matchup vs. New York is a difficult one for getting to the free throw line; opposing starting PGs have attempted just 3.2 foul shots per game this year when the Knicks are on their home court (11th-least in the NBA).
Gabe Vincent will not enjoy the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing without the home court advantage generally lowers stat production across the board.