Gabe Vincent Points - Player Prop Bet 4/30/2023

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Gabe Vincent

NBA · Player Props

Gabe Vincent

G · Miami Heat

Points

New York Knicks vs Miami Heat · Apr 30, 2023

Updated Apr 30, 2023 4:51 PM EST

Analysis

Gabe Vincent Points Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-120/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Gabe Vincent has attempted 11.6 shots from the field per game over the last 5 games while playing on the road, 3.1 higher than he's attempted overall this season on the road.
Gabe Vincent has sunk 2.8 shots from downtown per game over the last 5 games, 1.0 more than he's made from 3-point range in all games this season.
The Miami Heat check in as the 8th-most aggressive offense in the league while on the road this year when it comes to attempts from downtown.
The matchup against the Knicks is a good one for field goal attempts; the other team's starting PGs have averaged the 23rd-most shot attempts per game in the NBA this year (15.0).
The Miami Heat have played at the 8th-quickest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games.

Favors Under

Gabe Vincent has tallied 2.3 personal fouls per game this year, placing him among the highest-fouling players in the NBA (77th percentile).
The Knicks have played at the 2nd-slowest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games, which ought to reduce plays for the Heat.
The Miami Heat check in as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists).
The matchup vs. New York is a challenging one for getting to the free throw line; the opposing team's starting PGs have attempted a lowly 3.2 foul shots per game this year when the Knicks have the home court advantage (10th-least in the NBA).
Gabe Vincent will not have the benefit of the home court advantage in this game. Playing away from your home city generally lowers player performance for all stats.

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