Gabe Vincent Points - Player Prop Bet 4/26/2023

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Gabe Vincent

NBA · Player Props

Gabe Vincent

G · Miami Heat

Points

Milwaukee Bucks vs Miami Heat · Apr 26, 2023

Updated Apr 27, 2023 2:46 AM EST

Analysis

Gabe Vincent Points Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-120/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Gabe Vincent has converted 3.0 treys per game over the last 5 games on the road, 1.2 higher than he's made from downtown in all games this year when playing away from home.
The Miami Heat rank as the 8th-most aggressive offense in the NBA when playing on the road this year in terms of attempts from beyond the arc.
The Bucks have played at the 3rd-fastest pace in the NBA over the last 25 games, which ought to lead to more plays for the Heat.
While at home, the Bucks have allowed the least offensive rebounds per game (7.6) in the NBA to their opposition over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate extra chances for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Gabe Vincent has been called for 2.3 personal fouls per game this year, placing him among the most foul-prone players in the league (75th percentile).
The matchup against Milwaukee is a difficult one for shots from the field; when the Bucks are playing at home, the opposition's starting PGs have posted the 12th-lowest Field Goal% in the league this year (42.4%).
The Miami Heat have played at the most sluggish pace in the league this year.
The Miami Heat rank as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 20 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce additional chances for scoring and assists).
Gabe Vincent has sunk 50.0% of his foul shots over the last 15 games, -29.9% lower than he's put through the net overall this year.

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