Gabe Vincent Points - Player Prop Bet 4/1/2023

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Gabe Vincent

NBA · Player Props

Gabe Vincent

G · Miami Heat

Points

Miami Heat vs Dallas Mavericks · Apr 1, 2023

Updated Apr 1, 2023 11:21 PM EST

Analysis

Gabe Vincent Points Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-120/-108).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 8.5 @ -118 before it was bet up to 9.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Gabe Vincent has successfully made 50.3% of his 3-point shots over the last 5 games at home, 16.4% more than he's converted in all games this season with the home court advantage.
The Miami Heat rank as the 10th-most aggressive offense in the NBA this year in terms of attempts from beyond the arc.
Gabe Vincent has made 100.0% of his foul shot attempts over the last 5 games at home, 8.7% higher than he's sunk over the course of the season when playing at home.
Gabe Vincent will enjoy the benefit of the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing in your home city generally improves player production in all facets of the game.

Favors Under

The matchup vs. Dallas is a tough one; when the Mavericks are away from home, they have given up the 15th-least points per game in the NBA to the opposition's starting PGs this year (16.4).
The Miami Heat have played at the slowest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 25 games.
The Mavericks have played at the slowest pace-of-play in the NBA without the home court advantage this year, which should lead to decreased opportunities for the Heat.
The Miami Heat have been the worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 10 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
While playing on the road, the Mavericks have given up the 2nd-most offensive rebounds per game (13.8) in the NBA to opposing teams over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create added chances for scoring and assists).

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