Gabe Vincent Points - Player Prop Bet 2/11/2023

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Gabe Vincent

NBA · Player Props

Gabe Vincent

G · Miami Heat

Points

Orlando Magic vs Miami Heat · Feb 11, 2023

Updated Apr 7, 2023 2:41 PM EST

Analysis

Gabe Vincent Points Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-108/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 11.5 @ -118 before it was bet down to 11.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Gabe Vincent has sunk 2.2 3-point shots per game over the last 15 games, 0.6 higher than he's made from three in all games this year.
Gabe Vincent has been on the court for 30.0 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 5.0 more than he's been on the court for overall this year.
The matchup against Markelle Fultz is a strong one for scoring; when Fultz is playing at home fellow starting PGs this year, they have sunk a massive 50.8% of their field goal attempts (100th percentile).
The Miami Heat check in as the 8th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 20 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to added chances for scoring and assists).
Gabe Vincent has made 94.4% of his foul shot attempts over the last 15 games, 11.4% more than he's sunk over the course of the season.

Favors Under

Gabe Vincent has committed 2.4 personal fouls per game this year, putting him among the highest-fouling players in the league (78th percentile).
The Miami Heat check in as the lowest scoring offense in the NBA this year.
The Miami Heat have played at the 3rd-most sluggish pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games.
The Magic have played at the 3rd-most sluggish pace in the league over the last 5 games at home, which should lead to decreased possessions for the Heat.
Gabe Vincent will not have the benefit of the home court advantage in this contest. Playing away from your home stadium usually worsens player production in all facets of the game.

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