Gabe Vincent Points - Player Prop Bet 2/8/2023

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Gabe Vincent

NBA · Player Props

Gabe Vincent

G · Miami Heat

Points

Miami Heat vs Indiana Pacers · Feb 8, 2023

Updated Apr 7, 2023 2:41 PM EST

Analysis

Gabe Vincent Points Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-118/-104).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 12.5 @ -122 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Gabe Vincent has made 3.0 3-point shots per game over the last 5 games at home, 1.2 higher than he's made from three in all games this year when playing at home.
The Pacers have played at the 3rd-most up-tempo pace in the league over the last 15 games, which ought to increase plays for the Heat.
The Miami Heat check in as the 2nd-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games while on their home court (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore provide additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
Gabe Vincent has converted 100.0% of his foul shot attempts over the last 5 games, 17.2% higher than he's converted in all games this year.

Favors Under

The Miami Heat rank as the lowest scoring offense in the league this year.
The matchup vs. the Pacers is a difficult one for shots from the field; the other team's starting PGs have averaged the least field goals per game in the league this year (5.4).
The Miami Heat have played at the 2nd-most sluggish pace in the NBA over the last 10 games while at home.
The Pacers have allowed the least offensive rebounds per game (12.6) in the league to their opposition over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce additional chances for scoring and assists).
The matchup against Tyrese Haliburton is a difficult one for getting to the free throw line; when Haliburton is on the visiting team and facing fellow starting PGs this year, they have attempted just 4.7 free throws per game (77th percentile).

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