Gabe Vincent Points - Player Prop Bet 1/10/2023

reorder

NBA · Player Props

Gabe Vincent

G · Miami Heat

Points

Miami Heat vs Oklahoma City Thunder · Jan 10, 2023

Updated Apr 7, 2023 2:41 PM EST

Analysis

Gabe Vincent Points Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 13.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Gabe Vincent has converted 41.0% of his three-point shots over the last 5 games at home, 11.5% higher than he's converted from 3-point range over the course of the year with the home court advantage.
Gabe Vincent has attempted 4.5 3-point shots per game this year, ranking him in the 77th percentile out of all players in the NBA.
The Miami Heat check in as the 9th-most aggressive offense in the NBA on their home court this year as it relates to three-point attempts.
The Heat have played at the 2nd-speediest pace-of-play in the league this year on the road, which should raise [OPPORTUNITIES_POSSESSIONS] for the Thunder.
Gabe Vincent will enjoy the benefit of the home court advantage in this game. Playing on your home court generally boosts player performance across the board.

Favors Under

The Thunder have allowed the least offensive rebounds per game (12.3) in the league to the other team this year (which also eliminates additional chances for scoring and assists).
The matchup against the Thunder may be a challenging one for getting to the foul line; their opposition have attempted just 25.7 free throws per game this year (3rd-least in the league).
The Miami Heat rank as the 10th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league while on their home court this year (which also reduces additional chances for scoring and assists).
The Miami Heat have played at the 2nd-most sluggish pace in the NBA this year.
The matchup against the Thunder is a tough one for 3-pointers; when playing on the road, the opposition's starting PGs have totaled the 2nd-least 3-point shots per game in the league since the start of last season (1.6).