Gabe Vincent Assists - Player Prop Bet 6/12/2023

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Gabe Vincent

NBA · Player Props

Gabe Vincent

G · Miami Heat

Assists

Denver Nuggets vs Miami Heat · Jun 12, 2023

Updated Jun 13, 2023 2:36 AM EST

Analysis

Gabe Vincent Assists Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+126/-164).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -143 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -164.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Gabe Vincent has averaged 3.9 assists per game over the last 15 games when playing away from home, 1.2 more than he's averaged in all games this season on the road.
Gabe Vincent has been on the court for 33.8 minutes per game over the last 5 games while on the road, 7.2 more than he's been on the court for overall this season on the road.
The Nuggets have allowed the least offensive rebounds per game (8.3) in the NBA to opposing teams over the last 20 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate extra chances for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Gabe Vincent has tallied 2.4 personal fouls per game this year, putting him among the most foul-prone players in the NBA (82nd percentile).
The Miami Heat have played at the most lethargic pace in the NBA over the last 15 games.
The Nuggets have played at the 2nd-most sluggish pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games, which ought to reduce plays for the Heat.
The Miami Heat have been the worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 15 games when playing on the road (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate extra chances for scoring and assists).
Gabe Vincent will not receive the benefit of the home court advantage in this game. Playing on the road tends to decreases player production in all stat categories.

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