Fred VanVleet Rebounds - Player Prop Bet 3/6/2023

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Fred VanVleet

NBA · Player Props

Fred VanVleet

G · Toronto Raptors

Rebounds

Denver Nuggets vs Toronto Raptors · Mar 6, 2023

Updated Mar 6, 2023 11:11 PM UTC

Analysis

Fred VanVleet Rebounds Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+125/-160).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -140 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ +125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Fred VanVleet has totaled 3.7 defensive rebounds per game this year, ranking him among the best players in the NBA by this metric: 78th percentile.
Fred VanVleet has played 37.2 minutes per game this year, putting him among the most-used players in the NBA: 99th percentile.
The Nuggets have played at the 4th-speediest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games in their home stadium, which should lead to more opportunities for the Raptors.
The Toronto Raptors have been the 2nd-best offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to new chances for scoring and assists).
While at home, the Nuggets have allowed the least offensive rebounds per game (7.2) in the NBA to opposing clubs over the last 10 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate extra opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Fred VanVleet has tallied 2.5 personal fouls per game this year, ranking him as one of the most foul-prone players in the league (85th percentile).
The Toronto Raptors have played at the 2nd-most sluggish pace in the league over the last 5 games.
Fred VanVleet will not possess the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing away from your home city generally decreases stat production in all facets of the game.

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