Fred VanVleet Points - Player Prop Bet 12/22/2024

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Fred VanVleet

NBA · Player Props

Fred VanVleet

G · Houston Rockets

Points

Toronto Raptors vs Houston Rockets · Dec 22, 2024

Updated Dec 22, 2024 10:59 PM EST

Analysis

Fred VanVleet Points Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-118/-104).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -113 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ -118.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Fred VanVleet has attempted 10.4 shots from downtown per game over the last 5 games without the home court advantage, 1.7 more than he's attempted overall this year on the road.
Fred VanVleet has played 35.4 minutes per game this year, putting him among the most-utilized players in the league: 95th percentile.
The Rockets have played at the 6th-fastest pace in the NBA over the last 20 games.
The Raptors have played at the 3rd-quickest tempo in the NBA over the last 15 games at home, which should lead to increased plays for the Rockets.
The Rockets check in as the best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore provide added chances for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

In terms of scoring, the Houston Rockets's lackluster 106.0 points per game measures as the 6th-lowest in the NBA over the last 5 games.
Over the last 20 games, the other team's starting PGs have totaled 17.1 points per game (4th-fewest in the league) against the Raptors, creating a tough matchup for offensive production.
The matchup vs. Toronto may be a challenging one for drawing fouls; the opposition's starting PGs have attempted a mere 3.3 foul shots per game over the last 5 games when the Raptors are playing at home (5th-least in the NBA).
Fred VanVleet will not enjoy the benefit of the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing away from your home court generally lowers player production across the board.

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