Fred VanVleet Points - Player Prop Bet 3/31/2024

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Fred VanVleet

NBA · Player Props

Fred VanVleet

G · Houston Rockets

Points

Houston Rockets vs Dallas Mavericks · Mar 31, 2024

Updated Mar 31, 2024 11:17 PM UTC

Analysis

Fred VanVleet Points Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 17.5 @ -111 before it was bet up to 17.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Fred VanVleet has attempted 16.2 field goals per game over the last 5 games, 2.6 higher than he's attempted in all games this year.
Fred VanVleet has converted 4.2 shots from behind the three-point arc per game over the last 10 games at home, 1.0 more than he's converted from 3-point range over the course of the season when playing at home.
The matchup against Dallas is a favorable one for threes; when the Mavericks are the visiting team, the opposition's starting PGs have totaled the 9th-most three-point shots per game in the league this year (2.4).
The Houston Rockets have played at the 2nd-speediest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games when playing at home.
The Rockets are expected to see a spike in plays in this game from facing the 4th-fastest pace team in the NBA over the last 25 games (the Dallas Mavericks).

Favors Under

Fred VanVleet has averaged 4.0 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 1.6 higher than he's averaged overall this season.
In terms of scoring, the Houston Rockets's lackluster 46.0% field goal rate comes in as the 5th-worst in the NBA this year.
Fred VanVleet has attempted a mere 3.0 foul shots per game this year, significantly lower than his 4.1 mark last year.
Over the last 20 games, the other team's starting PGs have attempted 2.9 foul shots per game (lowest in the NBA) vs. the Mavericks, finding it difficult to draw fouls.

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