Fred VanVleet Points - Player Prop Bet 3/29/2024

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NBA · Player Props

Fred VanVleet

G · Houston Rockets

Points

Utah Jazz vs Houston Rockets · Mar 29, 2024

Updated Mar 30, 2024 1:32 AM EST

Analysis

Fred VanVleet Points Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 16.5 @ -119 before it was bet up to 17.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Fred VanVleet has been on the court for 36.6 minutes per game this year, ranking among the most used players in the league: 99th percentile.
The 4th-fastest pace-of-play road team in the league over the last 15 games has been the Houston Rockets.
The Rockets are expected to see an increase in possessions in this contest from squaring off against the 6th-speediest pace team in the NBA over the last 5 games (the Jazz).
The Houston Rockets rank as the best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 20 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
Fred VanVleet has successfully made 4.0 foul shots per game over the last 5 games on the road, 1.0 more than he's put through the net over the course of the season when playing on the road.

Favors Under

Fred VanVleet has attempted a mere 13.5 shots from the field per game this season, a significant dropoff from his 16.2 rate last season.
Fred VanVleet has been called for 3.4 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 1.1 higher than he's been called for overall this season.
With respect to shots from downtown, the Rockets's subpar 33.1% rate of converted threes while on the road comes in as the lowest in the league this year.
The matchup vs. Utah is a challenging one for 3-pointers; when the Utah Jazz are on their home court, opposing starting PGs have averaged the least three-pointers per game in the league this year (1.1).
Fred VanVleet will not have the benefit of the home court advantage in this contest. Playing away from your home city usually lowers stat production in all stat categories.