Fred VanVleet Points - Player Prop Bet 3/25/2024

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Fred VanVleet

NBA · Player Props

Fred VanVleet

G · Houston Rockets

Points

Houston Rockets vs Portland Trail Blazers · Mar 25, 2024

Updated Mar 26, 2024 12:07 AM EST

Analysis

Fred VanVleet Points Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 19.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 19.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Fred VanVleet has converted 4.2 three-point shots per game over the last 10 games at home, 1.0 more than he's converted from 3-point range in all games this year playing at home.
Fred VanVleet has averaged 35.9 minutes per game playing at home this year, putting him in the 98th percentile -- seeing the court more than most players in the NBA.
The Rockets have played at the 2nd-speediest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games.
Offensive rebounds save possession and generate bonus chances for scoring and assists, and the Rockets grade out 2nd-best in in the NBA with 13.1 offensive rebounds per game over the last 20 games.
Over the last 10 games, the opposition's starting PGs have attempted 6.5 free throws per game (2nd-highest in the league) vs. the Trail Blazers, succeeding in their efforts to get to the foul line.

Favors Under

Relative to last season's 16.2 rate, Fred VanVleet's shots from the field have regressed this season to 13.4 per game.
The Houston Rockets have been the 6th-least efficient shooting team in the league this year.
The matchup against the Portland Trail Blazers is a hard one for three-point shots; opposing starting PGs have posted the 3rd-lowest three percentage in the league this year (29.8%).
The Portland Trail Blazers have played at the 3rd-most lethargic tempo in the NBA over the last 25 games, which ought to reduce opportunities for the Houston Rockets.
Relative to last year's 4.1 mark, Fred VanVleet's number of free throw attempts has regressed this year to 3.0 free throw attempts per game.

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