Fred VanVleet Points - Player Prop Bet 3/10/2024

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Fred VanVleet

NBA · Player Props

Fred VanVleet

G · Houston Rockets

Points

Sacramento Kings vs Houston Rockets · Mar 10, 2024

Updated Mar 11, 2024 2:56 AM EST

Analysis

Fred VanVleet Points Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-115/-119).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 16.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Fred VanVleet has converted 4.2 treys per game over the last 5 games, 1.2 more than he's made from 3-point range in all games this season.
The 4th-fastest pace-of-play away team in the league over the last 15 games has been the Houston Rockets.
The Rockets will likely see a spike in opportunities in this contest from sharing the court with the 10th-quickest tempo home offense in the league this year (the Sacramento Kings).
Offensive rebounds maintain possession and create further opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Houston Rockets rank best in in the NBA with 13.5 offensive rebounds per game over the last 25 games.
Over the last 5 games, the opposition's starting PGs have attempted 7.8 foul shots per game (most in the NBA) against the Sacramento Kings, easily managing to draw fouls.

Favors Under

Fred VanVleet has attempted a measly 13.5 field goals per game this season, significantly lower than his 16.2 rate last season.
Fred VanVleet has been called for 0.2 technical fouls per game over the last 5 games, 0.1 higher than he's been called for overall this year.
When it comes to shooting, the Rockets's lackluster 112.0 points per game while playing on the road rates 7th-fewest in the NBA over the last 20 games.
This year when they are the visiting squad, the opposition's starting PGs have averaged 30.6% on threes (9th-worst in the NBA) against the Kings, marking this as a challenging matchup.
Fred VanVleet will not have the benefit of the home court advantage in this contest. Playing while traveling generally lowers player performance across the board.

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