Fred VanVleet Points - Player Prop Bet 3/6/2024

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Fred VanVleet

NBA · Player Props

Fred VanVleet

G · Houston Rockets

Points

Houston Rockets vs LA Clippers · Mar 6, 2024

Updated Mar 7, 2024 12:16 AM EST

Analysis

Fred VanVleet Points Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 16.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 16.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Fred VanVleet has successfully made 3.6 shots from downtown per game over the last 5 games, 0.6 higher than he's made from three in all games this year.
Out of all players in the NBA, Fred VanVleet rates in the 98th percentile for playing time, putting up a colossal 35.9 minutes per game on his home court this year.
This year when they have the home court advantage, the opposition's starting PGs have averaged 45.6% on field goal attempts (24th-highest in the NBA) against the LA Clippers, designating this as a good matchup.
The 3rd-speediest pace-of-play offense in the league over the last 20 games has been the Houston Rockets.
Offensive rebounds continue possession and lead to added opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Houston Rockets grade out 1stbest in in the NBA with 13.4 offensive boards per game over the last 25 games.

Favors Under

The Rockets rank as the 7th-lowest scoring offense in the league over the last 15 games.
The Clippers have played at the 6th-least up-tempo pace in the league away from their home court this year, which ought to lead to decreased opportunities for the Rockets.
While on the road, the LA Clippers have allowed the 2nd-most offensive boards per game (11.9) in the league to opposing clubs over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
Fred VanVleet has converted a measly 2.5 foul shots per game this season, quite a bit less than his 3.7 mark last season.

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