Fred VanVleet Points - Player Prop Bet 2/25/2024

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Fred VanVleet

NBA · Player Props

Fred VanVleet

G · Houston Rockets

Points

Houston Rockets vs Oklahoma City Thunder · Feb 25, 2024

Updated Feb 26, 2024 12:14 AM EST

Analysis

Fred VanVleet Points Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-141/+106).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 16.5 @ -148 before it was bet down to 14.5 @ +106.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Fred VanVleet has tallied 35.8 minutes per game while on his home court this year, ranking him in the 98th percentile -- some of the highest playing time of any player in the NBA.
This year, the other team's starting PGs have averaged 7.7 3-point attempts per game (30th-highest in the NBA) vs. the Oklahoma City Thunder, identifying this as a good matchup.
The 8th-quickest tempo team in the league over the last 15 games has been the Houston Rockets.
The Oklahoma City Thunder have played at the 3rd-speediest pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games, which ought to raise possessions for the Houston Rockets.
The Houston Rockets rank as the best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to added opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Fred VanVleet has attempted a lowly 13.4 shots from the field per game this season, a significant dropoff from his 16.2 mark last season.
Fred VanVleet has tallied 3.0 personal fouls per game over the last 15 games, 0.8 more than he's tallied overall this season.
The Houston Rockets check in as the 8th-lowest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 10 games.
Without the home court advantage, the Thunder have given up the most offensive rebounds per game (12.5) in the NBA to opposing clubs this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide added chances for scoring and assists).
Relative to last season's 3.7 rate, Fred VanVleet's free throws made have regressed this season to 2.6 per game.

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