Fred VanVleet Points - Player Prop Bet 1/8/2024

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Fred VanVleet

NBA · Player Props

Fred VanVleet

G · Houston Rockets

Points

Miami Heat vs Houston Rockets · Jan 8, 2024

Updated Jan 9, 2024 12:12 AM EST

Analysis

Fred VanVleet Points Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-145/+106).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 16.5 @ -129 before it was bet up to 16.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Fred VanVleet has made 4.4 treys per game over the last 5 games, 1.4 more than he's converted in all games this year.
Among all players in the league, Fred VanVleet comes in at the 100th percentile for playing time, compiling a colossal 37.2 minutes per game this year.
The matchup against the Miami Heat is a favorable one; they have allowed the 27th-most points per game in the NBA to the other team's starting PGs over the last 10 games (23.1).
The Rockets have been the 8th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games as the visting team (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
This year, their opposition has come down with 9.3 offensive rebounds per game (fewest in the league) against the Heat (reducing possessions that could otherwise spark further chances for offense).

Favors Under

Out of all players in the NBA, Fred VanVleet comes in at the 77th percentile for technical fouls, averaging a monstrous 0.1 fouls per game this year.
With respect to offense, the Rockets's subpar 110.5 points per game while playing away from home settles in as the 7th-fewest in the NBA this year.
The 4th-slowest tempo away team in the NBA this year has been the Houston Rockets.
The Heat have played at the 2nd-slowest pace in the league over the last 25 games, which ought to lead to fewer possessions for the Rockets.
Fred VanVleet will not possess the home court advantage in this contest. Playing away from your home stadium tends to decrease player production across the board.

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