Fred VanVleet Points - Player Prop Bet 1/5/2024

NBA · Player Props

Fred VanVleet

G · Houston Rockets

Points

Houston Rockets vs Minnesota Timberwolves · Jan 5, 2024

Updated Jan 6, 2024 1:20 AM EST

Analysis

Fred VanVleet Points Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 18.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 18.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Fred VanVleet has made 52.8% of his shots from the field over the last 5 games, 12.3% higher than he's made in all games this year.
Among all players in the NBA, Fred VanVleet lands in the 97th percentile for playing time, posting a monstrous 35.9 minutes per game playing at home this year.
In terms of scoring, the Houston Rockets's terrific 120.9 points per game ranks 8th-most in the NBA over the last 10 games.
The 8th-speediest tempo home offense in the NBA over the last 10 games has been the Houston Rockets.
While playing away from home, the Minnesota Timberwolves have given up the 2nd-least offensive rebounds per game (9.1) in the league to opposing squads this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate additional chances for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Fred VanVleet has attempted a measly 7.6 three-point shots per game this season, a significant dropoff from his 8.8 mark last season.
The matchup vs. the Minnesota Timberwolves is a challenging one for field goals; the opposition's starting PGs have shot for the 15th-lowest field goal percentage in the league this year (39.8%).
The Minnesota Timberwolves have played at the 8th-most sluggish pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games, which should decrease possessions for the Rockets.
Offensive rebounds preserve possession and spark added opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Rockets grade out 10thworst in in the league with the home court advantage with a mere 9.9 offensive boards per game this year.
Over the last 15 games, opposing starting PGs have attempted 3.3 free throws per game (11th-fewest in the league) vs. the Minnesota Timberwolves, facing an uphill battle to get to the foul line.