Fred VanVleet Points - Player Prop Bet 12/26/2023

NBA · Player Props

Fred VanVleet

G · Houston Rockets

Points

Houston Rockets vs Indiana Pacers · Dec 26, 2023

Updated Dec 27, 2023 12:52 AM EST

Analysis

Fred VanVleet Points Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-118/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 19.5 @ -108 before it was bet up to 19.5 @ -118.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Fred VanVleet has been on the court for 36.3 minutes per game when playing at home this year, ranking in the 98th percentile -- seeing the court more than most players in the league.
As it relates to scoring, the Rockets's terrific 120.8 points per game ranks 9th-most in the NBA over the last 5 games.
The Houston Rockets have played at the 5th-fastest pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games while at home.
The Houston Rockets will likely get a boost in plays today from competing against the most up-tempo pace team in the league over the last 20 games (the Indiana Pacers).
Away from their home court, the Pacers have allowed the 5th-least offensive rebounds per game (8.4) in the NBA to opposing squads over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

In contrast to last year's 16.2 mark, Fred VanVleet's shots have fallen this year to 14.2 per game.
Fred VanVleet has been called for 0.2 technical fouls per game over the last 5 games while on his home court, 0.1 more than he's been called for overall this year at home.
This year, opposing starting PGs have totaled 4.6 three attempts per game (15th-lowest in the NBA) vs. the Indiana Pacers, creating a challenging matchup.
The Rockets rank as the 8th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists).
The matchup against the Indiana Pacers may be a difficult one for drawing fouls; the opposition's starting PGs have attempted a mere 3.5 free throws per game over the last 20 games (10th-least in the league).