Fred VanVleet Points - Player Prop Bet 12/15/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Fred VanVleet

G · Houston Rockets

Points

Memphis Grizzlies vs Houston Rockets · Dec 15, 2023

Updated Dec 16, 2023 1:15 AM EST

Analysis

Fred VanVleet Points Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 17.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 18.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Out of all players in the NBA, Fred VanVleet lands in the 100th percentile for playing time, averaging a monstrous 37.5 minutes per game while playing at home this year.
The matchup against the Grizzlies is a positive one; they have allowed the 29th-most points per game in the NBA to the opposition's starting PGs this year (23.5).
The Houston Rockets have played at the 10th-fastest tempo in the league over the last 5 games as the visting team.
While on their home court, the Memphis Grizzlies have allowed the 3rd-least offensive rebounds per game (9.0) in the NBA to the other team this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate further chances for scoring and assists).
As it relates to getting to the foul line, the Houston Rockets's excellent 27.8 foul shots per game rates 6th-best in the NBA over the last 5 games.

Favors Under

Fred VanVleet has attempted a measly 14.2 shots per game this year, a significant dropoff from his 16.2 mark last year.
Among all players in the league, Fred VanVleet places in the 88th percentile for technical fouls, putting up a monstrous 0.1 fouls per game while at home this year.
The Memphis Grizzlies have played at the 2nd-most sluggish tempo in the NBA over the last 5 games, which ought to lead to decreased opportunities for the Houston Rockets.
The Houston Rockets have been the 8th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league at home this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
Relative to last season's 3.7 rate, Fred VanVleet's foul shots made have declined this season to 2.7 per game.