Fred VanVleet Points - Player Prop Bet 12/11/2023

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Fred VanVleet

NBA · Player Props

Fred VanVleet

G · Houston Rockets

Points

Houston Rockets vs San Antonio Spurs · Dec 11, 2023

Updated Dec 12, 2023 12:23 AM EST

Analysis

Fred VanVleet Points Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-125/-103).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 17.5 @ -109 before it was bet up to 18.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Fred VanVleet has sunk 3.1 3-pointers per game while on his home court this year, ranking in the 97th percentile among all players in the NBA.
Among all players in the league, Fred VanVleet comes in at the 98th percentile for playing time, putting up a massive 35.6 minutes per game this year.
In regard to treys, the Houston Rockets's terrific 39.0% rate of sunk threes places 5th-highest in the league this year.
This year when they have the home court advantage, the other team's starting PGs have posted 21.8 points per game (30th-most in the NBA) against the Spurs, making this a good matchup for offensive productivity.
The Rockets will likely see an increase in possessions today from sharing the court with the 2nd-quickest pace-of-play road team in the league over the last 10 games (the Spurs).

Favors Under

The 3rd-slowest pace home team in the NBA this year has been the Rockets.
The Houston Rockets have been the 4th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
Fred VanVleet has made a measly 2.6 foul shots per game this year, significantly lower than his 3.7 rate last year.

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